20210124 CJS Director Yujen Kuo talked in DPP's seminar "Biden Administration and the Prospects on Taiwan-US Relations"
CJS Director Dr. Yujen Kuo shared his analysis on the strategic posture of China and the U.S. in Biden Era in DPP's seminar Biden Administration and the Prospects on Taiwan-US Relations, Jan. 24, 2021, Taipei.
Dr. Kuo argued that China will "seek peace with the U.S. by its force, in order to nurture its force by peacetime (以戰逼和，以和養戰)." China would join Russia and North Korea to make tensions in Northeast Asia after March 2021 when the winter passes, by means such as China-Russia joint exercises, North Korea's nuclear tests, China's harassing Japan in East China Sea in order to keep Japan away from expanding its influence in South China Sea, etc. China's purpose is to force the U.S. to lift its tariffs and technology ban on China's goods and companies.
As to U.S.' Taiwan policy in the backdrop of China's calculations, Dr. Kuo assessed, U.S. would strengthen the cooperation with Taiwan while avoid making Taiwan the obvious target of China's pressure, which will be the major difference between Biden's and Trump's Taiwan policy. The U.S. will continue its soft-power cooperation with Taiwan via platforms such as GCTF. In the aspect of hard-power, Dr. Kuo pointed out, the recent statement by U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price is a "precise and strong-worded" message, amphasizing on Biden Administration's commitment to maintain Indo-Pacific security and order. If China continues to harass Taiwan's Southwest airspace, the U.S. would have to consider to integrate Taiwan into its Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD).
The seminar was moderated by DPP Lawmaker Dr. Chih-Cheng Lo. DPP Deputy Secretary-General Fei-fan Lin gave his opening remarks to the seminar. Panelists also included Prospects Foundation President Dr. I-Chung Lai, and TKU Center for Advanced Technology Director Dr. Tzu-Yun Su.